University staff could face a “0 per cent” pay increase in 2009 - in real terms, a pay cut - due to this year’s unanticipated high pay costs.

Following the 2006 pay deal between the Universities and Colleges Employers Association (Ucea) and the University and College Union (UCU), staff have seen their salaries rise by more than 10 per cent over the last 2 years, with the final increase of this year tied to inflation.

Inflation for September 2008 will be published in mid-October. The current figure stands at 4.8 percent.

The 2006 agreement also permits those universities experiencing ‘financial difficulties’ to postpone the 2008 increase by up to 11 months, and at a September meeting in Cambridge of the vice-chancellors umbrella group Universities UK, the Ucea was told that around a quarter of universities may do just that.

Chair of the British Universities Finance Directors Group Phil Harding has indicated that from the results of a confidential survey of finance directors on their ability to pay the 2008 increase, “most” would not defer payment.

In terms of a 2009 pay increase, many staff may be looking at quite the opposite, with “something between zero and a very small figure” being privately proposed by some. As inflation continues to rise, 0 per cent would in fact amount to a real terms pay cut.

According to a Ucea spokesman, it is “far too early” to have a clear idea of 2009 salaries, but”Institutions will need to make difficult adjustments to their planned budgets to meet these new costs and minimise job losses. It is inevitable that the cumulative effect of these salary increases will place serious constraints on pay settlements for August 2009 and beyond.”

UCU general secretary Sally Hunt commented that while the last pay deal was a good one, “the problem has not gone away though and attempts to claw back next year the deal UCU members fought so hard to get in 2006 will be met with a robust response”.

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0%, 2006 pay deal, pay cut, UCU, UUK